Y2012 World economic overview
|2012 April 2||Posted by admin under 2012 1Q, Economic overviews|
It is projected that in Y2012 all major world economies growth will slow down, with Japan as exception due to its -0,9% shrinking in 2011 due to tsunami effect and is projected to recover with +1,7% growth. US look quit strong in world wide growth slowdown context with its +1,8% same growth as in 2011. It is possible that US will show even stronger growth as US is showing good results. In 2012 EU will suffer a depression of -0,5%. Germany and UK will show minimal growth 0,3-0,6% which signals bad news for European home-market companies. China growth will continue to decline to ~8% according to projected “soft landing” scenario as China shows clear signals of overheating.
It is expected that material price will decline in 2012. Oil should decrease by 5% due to economic slowdown and other non fuel commodities price should decrease even further around -14%. Huge increase in commodity price was driven by cheap money which was putted into the market to recover from 2008 financial crisis. This is bad news for energy market companies.
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